On 25th March, the Atlanta Fed released an estimate of 3.1% annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate. The New York Fed estimate was a bit lower at 1.49% on March 20th but still quite high.
These estimates rely on official information and so can be slow to react to unforeseen circumstances such as the COVID-19 outbreak.
QuantCube’s GDP Nowcast is a real-time indicator based on diverse alternative data sources including maritime traffic, crude oil imports/exports and live job openings.
Our US Nowcast for Q1 2020 showed 0.80% on 25th March, consistent with a quarter-over-quarter GDP growth of about -3.0% in annualized terms.
QuantCube’s GDP Nowcast predicted a US recession not only months in advance of official values but also well ahead of traditional estimates.
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